UTA Checkpoint Analysis
June 6th 2022
In the first of a series of posts, we will deep dive into data from five years worth of Ultra Trail Australia results to learn about key aspects of the race including target check-point times, pacing between each check-point and analysis of the sections which traditionally have seen the biggest drop in paces. To provide insight into this, we will look at data from over 4600 athletes and hopefully learn a few things which can help race planning for the 2022 version!
The first topic we will cover is target check-point times for various finish times. Now I know some people prefer not to have target checkpoint times because of the potential negative implications if a time is missed. In any ultra, mindset is critical and missing a time can put you in a real negative mindset which takes work to get out of. For others, having a range to hit is motivating and enables them to know they are on track which in an ultra which is so variable from race to race, can be a really important piece of knowledge to have.
So lets start with an analysis of the times runners have arrived at each of the checkpoints throughout UTA. There are five checkpoints within UTA with the names and distances below. Note that Dunphys Camp moved to Foggy Knob in 2021 but this analysis is all based off Dunphys Camp which is 600m away from Foggy Knob.
Checkpoint 1 – Narrow Neck - 11.4km
Checkpoint 2 – Dunphys Camp/Foggy Knob – 31.6/32.1km
Checkpoint 3 – Six Foot Track- 46km
Checkpoint 4 – Katoomba Aquatic Centre - 57km
Checkpoint 5 – Queen Victoria Hospital - 78.4km
If we look at those runners who have finished UTA between 10 and 11 hours we can see that there are 45 runners in this group from years 2014,2015,2016,2018,2019. The table below shows that the mean time these runners took to each CP1 at Narrow Neck was 61 minutes with the fastest time anyone got there being 54 minutes. This is the fastest time anyone has reached CP1, faster than Dylan Bowman who ran 8:50 in 2015 and reached CP1 in 55 minutes. The median or 50th percentile is 60 minutes while the longest anyone has taken (Max) and still finished in under 11 hours is 69 minutes.
You can use this information to plan your race by using your target time to then set targets for each aid station. Using the tables below and knowing I want to finish between 13 and 14 hours, I know I should be at CP3 between 4hrs 19 and 5hrs 16 using the minimum and the median. In 2019, I arrived at CP3 in 5hrs 5 and finished in 13:06 so the planning windows do work!
All the tables are below so please use as you like and let me know if you have any questions. Please email me at beyondlimitsruncoach@gmail.com or if you are interested in either monthly coaching or a one-off UTA plan, please complete your details here.
